Your Local Update on the El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market
The El Dorado Hills luxury home market has flattened out. What does that mean for buyers and sellers?
After several years of strong El Dorado Hills real estate price gains, the El Dorado Hills luxury market has flattened. It is important to recognize this shift if you are planning to buy or sell property in the area any time soon.
While some of the change is a seasonal shift we annually in the fall, there can be no question that the growth in luxury homes sales we’ve seen in El Dorado Hills since 2016 has begun to flatten.
$1M+ Home Sales in EDH 2016-Present
The dark green bars in the chart above track home sales over the past three years in the $1M+ market. Without even squinting, you can see the how the luxury home segment in El Dorado Hills has strengthened in the past three years and how it has also leveled in the past 12 months.
Overall, the growth in the luxury segment is great news for El Dorado Hills homeowners. we are seeing price levels and sales strength in this segment that we had not seen before 2018. So far, the slowing growth is not something homeowners should be concerned about.
The idea that El Dorado Hills is a highly desirable place to live has become a poorly kept secret. The beautiful setting, great lifestyle, agreeable weather, convenient location, good schools, luxury amenities, and relatively affordable real estate will continue to bring buyers from outside the area.
In the past year we’ve worked with multiple buyers from the Bay Area and others from Palm Springs, Kansas City, Denver, and other markets around the country. As Sacramento’s profile continues to grow and improve, El Dorado Hills will continue to benefit as one of best communities in the region.
In the immediate term, the market is clearly catching its breath. Luxury inventory is up, and sales and prices are flat. If you are a buyer or seller in the $1M+ segment, here are some things to think about:
In August, there were 60 $1M+ homes for sale in EDH and 10 sales in this price range. In other words, 1-in-6 $1M+ homes sold last month, and 5-in-6 didn’t.
Homes sold in this price range in August averaged 80 days on the market.
Another way of looking at this is to say that if no new homes were to come on the market, it would take 6 months before every $1M+ home in El Dorado Hills to sell.
This does not mean that $1M+ homes can’t or won’t sell quickly! We’d argue that sellers who bring their new listings well, in good condition, meeting current design trends, marketed well, and priced well, have the opportunity to sell very quickly! Let’s explain:
Buyers in this price range, barring outside pressures of a relocation or similar factor, can generally afford to patient and wait for the right home. This means that most buyers in this segment have already viewed the current listings and are either on the fence about making an offer on one, have not found the home they want, or they moved too slowly or bid too low on a home they wanted.
Your first two weeks on the market are critical to quick sale! When a new home hits the market and it presents well online to luxury buyers, buyers are going to want to see the home right away! Remember, these buyers have been looking and either already lost out to another buyer or have not found the right home. A desirable home, marketed well, is always going to get showings as soon as it hits the market!
It’s critical in the current market conditions that sellers price properly! The idea that sellers can overprice and expect buyers to make an offer is a concept that rarely matches reality. A buyer with a $1.3M budget is going to visit $1.3M homes. They aren’t going to visit $1.5M homes with the expectation that the seller will accept $1.3M. And, since their budget is $1.3M, they are aren’t looking to offer $1.1M for a home a seller has overpriced at $1.3M.
Sellers need to come out of the shoot priced sharply or risk losing the opportunity that comes from being fresh on the market. Once all the active shoppers in your asking price range have viewed a home and moved on without making an offer, the buyer pool shrinks to only those buyers just entering market. Not only is this a smaller group of buyers, it is also a group that is generally in the exploratory stage of their buying process.
In an appreciating market, sellers can price high knowing that if they are overpriced, the market is moving in their direction. In a flat or softening market, overpriced homes become stale and sellers are forced to chase the market down; statistically this results in a selling price below where the home would have sold had it been priced right from the outset!
It’s important for sellers to think long and hard when one agent tells them their home will sell for a much higher price than other agents tell them it would (in the agent world we call this “buying a listing”). No agent knows what a home will sell for. The best we can do is show you comparable sales – if you price higher than comps in this market you could end up overpriced and missing the opportunity to sell quickly.
It’s always best to think of an asking price as the “marketing price.” Price higher than comps in a flat market and you might end up sitting on a stale listing. Price right, and you are more likely to see offers quickly.
For buyers, we encourage taking advantage of this same phenomenon in reverse. In the current market, it might make sense for buyers to look at stale listings above their budget. Your $1.3M home might be languishing at 90+ days on the market at $1.5M!
Whether you are buying or selling in this market, we are always happy to provide you with a no-obligation consultation to help you understand your opportunity.
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Wouldn’t it be nice if every home sold as soon as it hit the market?
Sometimes things are so good for so long we come to expect that there is a new “normal.” Such can be the case with sellers of real estate in El Dorado Hills, there can me a mindset that the recent past will repeat in the near future.
For much of 2017, 2018, and early 2019, we experienced a very strong sellers’ market. Many neighborhoods were seeing new highs in prices and some homes were selling in weeks if not days. That pattern continued long enough that many people adjusted their expectations to think that we had a new normal, that the frothy market conditions would never go flat.
But go flat conditions have…
And when I say “flat,” that’s exactly what I mean, flat. Not up, not down, flat.
“So,” you ask, “if the market is flat, why does it fell like the market has slowed down?”
In a word, momentum. The market is moving at a good speed, it’s just not currently accelerating like it had been.
Let me give you an example. You know that feeling when you’re getting on the highway and you need to punch the accelerator to merge and match the speed of the cars on the highway? Depending on what you drive 😉, you can hear the exhaust howl and feel the acceleration push you back into your seat as you come up to highway speed. That was the feeling our real estate market had in the recent past.
Then, you merge into traffic, let off the gas, and cruise down the highway. Less exciting, for sure, because there is far less change happening. But you’re still driving the same 65MPH (or whatever…) you were driving when merged into traffic after accelerating onto the freeway. That is our current market, still cruising at highway speeds.
We’re moving at highway speeds, but because it feels less exciting than acceleration, dare I say “normal,” it actually feels more like we’ve slowed down. What’s really happened is that we’ve stopped accelerating.
So what is “normal” in the housing market?
Normal means that, because prices aren’t accelerating, buyers feel less pressure. They can take a little more time making a decision, perhaps be a little more picky knowing that there is less of a buying frenzy. Buyers are now cruising down the freeway rather than accelerating, looking over their shoulder, trying to merge from the onramp.
Sellers are also noticing the difference in the market.
Many sellers who are still pricing for continued acceleration are starting to get ahead of the flow of the traffic. Most of those trying to get a record price for the neighborhood or who are asking a premium price for a less than premium home are going to be better off if they let up on the gas pedal and coast back to match the flow of traffic.
A “normal” market means that buyers and sellers agree on a fair price without outside pressures or urgency. It means sellers don’t hold all the cards, but neither do buyers. Good homes are still selling at a good price, it might just take a little more patience than we’ve become used to.
Remember, a well-priced, well-prepared, and well-marketed home will always find a buyer!
If you are selling or are considering selling, we suggest a quick read of our primer on
How to Determine the Market Value of Your Home!
We’d be happy to talk with you in more detail about your home, your neighborhood. Please email us or call any time! 916.941.6566
August 2018 Data on EDH Homes above $1M
EDH Home Sales Are Starting to Show a Trend
In the three price ranges we studied this month, up to $700,000, $700,000-$1,000,000, and over $1,000,000, none of the three segments performed especially well in June. Of the three, the the highest priced segment, over $1 million, was the only segment not showing a slowdown in sales.
Over the past several months, the data has become more consistent. The market is shifting to a more balanced market not favoring buyers or sellers (though it might feel like it favors buyers after the long sellers market we’ve enjoyed). Sellers need to take this change into consideration and buyers have a better opportunity than they’ve had in quite some time.
Sellers who have been afraid to sell because they were afraid they wouldn’t be able to find a new home also have a great opportunity in this changing market!
In the lowest priced segment, sales were down 21% while for the number of homes for sale increased by 41% when compared with June a year ago.
In the middle of the market, homes priced between $700,000 and $1,000,000, sales were flat compared to last year while competition for sellers, and opportunities for buyers increased dramatically. The number of homes for sale in this segment, compared to June 2018 was up 78% from 60 homes for sale year ago to to 107 this year!
The highest priced home segment was the only one of the three that showed relative strength in July, relative strength in this case meaning sales and inventory were flat in comparison to one year ago. Of note, though, is the 31% fewer homes that went into contract in comparison June 2018.
We are consulting sellers that this is not the time to be swinging for the fences when you price your home for sale. Buyers have more choices and have have less incentive to move quickly UNLESS yours is the best home at its price point.
Our goal with our sellers to do just that, make your home the most desirable home in its competitive set. Our process has worked consistently well in selling our clients homes quickly and at good prices, In fact, in the past couple of months we’ve put several homes into contract within days of going on the market by following a proven process. (See our recent sales.)
For the market a whole, there were 1.5x more homes for sale in June than June of ’18. Homes that sold averaged 37 days on market. At the current rate of sales, if no new homes were to come on the market, it would take 3 months for every listed home to sell.
It’s worth repeating, only the best homes in each price point are selling quickly! When you look at homes for sale in the price range where you want to sell, your home needs to stand apart from the others. Homes that don’t stand out will stay on the market longer as more desirable homes with a better location, better floor plan, and/or nicer amenities sell more quickly.
If you are buyer, understand that the best homes in each price point are still going fast and often getting multiple offers. Be ready to pull the trigger when you find the home you’ve been searching for!
If you are considering buying or selling, we can help you navigate this increasingly tricky market. Let’s chat!
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“First rate, professional, and personalized consulting and handling of all aspects of our home sale. Simply put, the best real estate experience I’ve had.”
Was May a Blip, Or Is Something Else Happening?
El Dorado Hills sales across all price points in May were down a whopping 24% from last year!
Should sellers be concerned? Should buyers be poised to take advantage?
Not so fast!
As much as closed sales dropped in May from the year prior, homes put into contract increase by even more! 122 homes in El Dorado Hills went into contract in May, up 27% from May 2018 and up 58% from April 2019.
What are we to make of these mixed signals?
When we look at May data at different price segments we see similar activity. Closings in May were off and new contracts were up. Under $650,000, $650,000 – $1M, and $1M+, all segments show the same May softness in closes and the same strength in the number of pending sales.
We don’t always see the whole market move in sync like this, often the low end will show strength when the upper end is soft, or high end sales will be strong but the lower priced home sales will be down. In May, closings across the spectrum were down while homes going into contract were up!
Because we only see sales data in the rearview mirror, it’s difficult to tell if May sales were an anomaly, or they foreshadow a softening to come. We won’t know for certain for a few months.
Instead, we’ll share our thoughts based on our firsthand experience over the past few months including conversations we’re having with buyers and sellers.
The typical Spring sales never materialized this year. Or, maybe, they were just delayed!
In large part, we feel, this was due to the almost unprecedented rains that continued well into April. The market experienced what we call, “Rain Fatigue.”
Buyers simply were not interested in braving another stormy weekend to go look at homes. Think of it, how many families are going to load up the kids, and drive up from the Bay Area in the rain weekend after weekend to look at homes? At some point, they just decided to wait for better weather.
When the weather finally cleared up in May, BOOM! There was pent up demand and in May homes started going into contract at a rate we haven’t seen in over 5 years!
Pending Sales in May ’19 were 30+% higher than in any May for the past five years!
|Year||# of Pending Sales|
Source: El Dorado Hills data, TrendGraphix
So, while media reports are telling us the housing market is slowing (Sac Bee, June 25), we see data that suggests that wasn’t the case at all in May!
When it comes down to it, it is your personal circumstances that determine whether or not it’s a good time to sell or buy a home.
We caution you not to miss your opportunity because of news reports that might now be showing the whole picture.
If now is the time for you, we’d love a chance to to talk and to earn your trust and to assist you through the process.
What Our Clients Say About Our Service:
“We were referred to the Yoffie Team by a friend, and we are so happy we were. Shannon was able to find us the perfect house, (which I was not sure we were going to be able to as the checklist was pretty long). Their guidance and knowledge helped us strategically position ourselves on a multi-offer house, that we did not want to lose. In the end, we got the house we wanted and at a price we were more then happy with. I am so grateful we were referred to them!”
We are in a Market of Markets
When someone asks, “How’s the real estate market?” the answer for us is almost always, “Great!” That doesn’t mean the market is great for everyone, though!
This time every month we start crunching the monthly TrendGraphix data to make sure we understand what our clients are facing. Whether buying or selling, activity for different price points and neighborhoods in El Dorado Hills are always going to vary.
For example, below is a chart showing sales all of El Dorado Hills at all price points for the month of April. At the bottom you can see a direct comparison with the same data from April 2018.
If we were to look at the market in totality, we’d think things are pretty soft. For the market as a whole, sales are down 14% and homes under contract are down 13% compared to April 2018.
But no one shops the market as a whole, which is why we dig deeper.
For example, the luxury segment above $1 million shows an entirely different picture:
In the $1M+ segment we that instead of sales being off, they are actually up 9% and homes in contract are up a whopping 40% compared to last April!
But even that doesn’t necessarily show the clearest picture.
Above $1.25 million, the data again shows a different market:
Here again, we see a drop in sales of 29%. Equally importantly, we see that out of 35 homes for sale above $1.25 million, only 5 sold in April, 1-in-7. Perhaps a better time to be a buyer at this price than a seller?
So where is the strength over $1 million? Between $1M and $1.25M.
Between $1 million and $1.25 million, sales in April were up 75% from April a year earlier. And equally importantly, better than 1-in-3 homes sold!
This is important information for sellers to understand . Where do you want to be priced? It is pretty clear that there is a ceiling around $1.25M for luxury sellers who are looking to sell quickly. Being priced where 30 of 35 homes are sitting on the market can be a tough spot. Granted some of those homes are priced well above $1.25M, but others are priced at $1.3M and are sitting when they might have sold at $1.25M!
We review these types of pricing and sales trends with sellers to help you determine the best price range for your home. You certainly might choose to price higher than where the buyers are, and if you do you will have a good understanding as to why it might take a longer for your home to sell. Or, you can choose to price in “sweet spot” for a quicker sale.
No matter where you price your home for sale, have an understanding of how that price range has performed in recent months. It could be difference between a quick sale and a stale listing!
Questions about the market? We love talking real estate! Give us a call or drop an email!
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Will The Spring Housing Market Please Stand Up?
Just a month ago we were showing you how when the sun come out during the first half of March the local housing market sprouted like all those weeds in garden. Then, the rains came back… and home buying slowed again considerably.
The question now is whether the window has closed for a robust Spring housing market, or has it just beed delayed? With warm and sunny weather forecast for the foreseeable future, we are about to find out!
After a strong start, March homes sales cooled considerable compared to 2018. Considering that the economy has been strong and interest rates are near historic lows, we expect to see a much stronger April and May.
One issue we see as we tour for sale homes in the area is a fewer number of “move-in ready” homes. We can’t emphasize enough the need to properly prepare your home for sale! What does that mean?
At minimum, home sellers should:
- De-clutter every room.
- Make sure the house is spotlessly clean.
- Touch up paint, or even re-paint if necessary.
- Hide unsightly things like laundry baskets, garbage cans, vacuums, etc.
- Take down as many “personal effects” as possible (pictures, things hanging on the fridge, etc.).
- Make sure all light bulbs are working (for brightness).
- Make sure the yard is in tip-top condition.
Download The Ultimate Home Buyer’s Guide
We created this FREE guide to help you along the way. Inside, you will find everything you need to help you sell yor home quickly and for the most money!
Do you have questions about selling your home? About the status of the local real estate market? We are happy to answer any questions you have! Give us a call or send us a message any time!
Spring Has Sprung in the El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market
If you were wondering if the Spring market would ever heat up, all indications are YES!
When the sun come out earlier this month, so did the buyers! There is pent up demand for move-in ready homes, especially at the lower price points below $750,000.
We aren’t yet predicting a repeat of Spring 2018 when multiple offers were almost the norm, but that doesn’t mean a well-priced, well prepared home won’t get multiple offers (in fact, we did on a listing just this past week!).
We admit to being a bit surprised to see the March numbers through the 19th – sales were up 79% compared to a month earlier! The number of homes that went into contract were also up 49% from February!
Buyers, particularly in the segments below $750,000 where we are seeing the majority of activity, have been frustrated with the small number of homes that meet their needs and expectations. They are telling us that they can’t find updated homes that are move-in ready, so when one comes on the market that meets their needs, they are pouncing!
This doesn’t mean they are buying just anything!
In fact, we are seeing just the opposite. Buyers are being patient, waiting for the home that they can comfortably move into right away. They aren’t looking to invest in updating the master bath or kitchen. They want fresh paint, nice landscaping, and a good location. To be truthful, we were a bit surprised at the lists of wants we see from buyers right now. Many have been looking all winter and have been disappointed with many of the offerings available. They are ready to buy!
Buyers won’t overpay
As much as buyers want a move-in ready home, they also are budget conscious. Most of the buyers we’re seeing in the lower price points are families with younger children. They are working to balance purchasing a new home with all the other expenses involved with being young parents. While we haven’t found that buyers are making lowball offers, we also aren’t seeing them willing to “pay whatever it takes.” Price and prepare well to sell quickly!
Are you a buyer?
Have your ducks in a row before you make an offer. If you fall in love with a home that has just hit the market, expect that there are other families equally excited about that home. To make your offer as strong as possible, do the following:
- Get pre-approved for a loan. (If you don’t have a lender, we’d be happy to make introduction to one that fits your needs).
- If the home just hit the market, and you want it, don’t lowball your offer. Make your first offer as strong as you can. Don’t lose your dream home over $5,000 if you would have been willing to pay $5,000 more!
- There are others buyers just like you out there. If you see a home come on the market that looks like a good candidate, have your agent get you in for a showing as soon as possible! (We often know about homes before they hit the market, giving our buyers a further leg up!)
- If possible, don’t make your offer contingent on selling your current home. Of course that isn’t always possible. There are creative work-arounds, however. Talk to us or your lender about ideas that have worked for others.
- If your offer must be contingent on the sale of you current home, have your home already on the market! Sellers are not likely to be willing to take their home off the market for a buyer whose home is not already for sale. If your home sells before you find a replacement, having the money ready while you rent for a few months can put you in a much a stronger buying position.
Download The Ultimate Home Buyer’s Guide
We created this FREE guide to help you along the way. Inside, you will find everything you need to help you find and purchase your dream home!
We are always happy to answer any questions you have whether buying, selling, or are just wanting to be informed! Give us a call or drop us a line!
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What will the Spring El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market Bring?
One thing we can assure you, it will not be a repeat of Spring 2018!
The El Dorado Hills real estate market continues to shift away from the heavily tilted sellers’ market we experienced last year towards a more balanced market.
By no means is the sky falling. Adjust expectations appropriately and buyers and sellers will continue to reap the benefits of a healthy real estate market.
The year is starting off with very healthy sales, particularly at the upper end of the market for homes that are well-prepared and correctly priced. January saw sales of homes over $1M match 2018 numbers with 5 closed sales and the number of $1M+ homes that went into contract in January jumped to 9, 200% above January 2018.
Inventory at the high end also jumped. January saw 40 $1M+ homes on the market. The higher sales balanced out the higher inventory leaving us with the same 8 months of inventory as in January 2018.
The good news is that well-prepared, well-priced, well-marketed homes are at the higher end are moving. The tougher news is that if you are a seller in that segment, you can expect there to be more competition this year. It’s imperative that luxury homes shine if they are going to sell quickly!
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Below $1M is where we start to evidence of shifting market.
January sales below $1M were off by 25% with 33 sales compared to 2018’s 44. Pending sales faired better, down only 6.3% with 43 homes going into contract in January. At the same time inventory in the under $1M segment increased by 7.3%.
A year ago there was 1.9 months of inventory under $1M, January say that number spike 50% to 2.7 months. This is the highest level of inventory we’ve seen since 2017.
On the flip side, buyers are in a stronger position than in quite some time. With increasing inventory and increasing competition among sellers it is in buyers’ interest to get shopping!
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What a Difference a Year Makes!
A year ago we were still wondering if the strength building in the lower price points in El Dorado Hills was going to transfer into the higher end of the market. We had just begun to see signs that it would. At the same time anything priced under $650,000 had buyers lining up
A year later the higher end of the market is the driver while the lower end has slowed considerably.
For one thing, the stock market did. A year ago the Dow Jones Industrial Index was enjoying an annual gain of about 30% and was sitting at 26,150. Wild swings down, up, then down again since then have the Dow at 24,065 as of this writing. Up off the lowest point and still unpredictable. Many lower-end buyers were feeling flush and optimistic while the market was booming and are considerably more concerned as when bounces up and down.
For another, mortgage rates are up from about 4% to about 4.4%. While incredibly low historically and lower than they were much of the second half of 2018, the 10% increase is significant for buyers at the lower end of the market.
Current events also can’t be discounted when evaluating why more folks, especially at the lower end, are being cautious. When people are unsure what the future holds they tend to sit on their hands waiting for stability.
So what now?
We are continuing to see strong activity in the higher end, from $1,000,000 to about $1,600,000. Sales above $1,000,000 were up 267% in December compared to December a year ago.
A well-prepared, well-priced, well-marketed home is going to generate interest. However, don’t count on setting a price record for your neighborhood. Price per foot in this segment was off 17% in December.
We expect to see a healthy Spring real estate market, one that is more balanced between buyers and sellers than last year. Barring changes, we don’t expect to see the same number of multiple bids on lower priced homes as we had last year. Buyers are looking for turnkey properties that match the values they are seeing for comparable homes.
We are advising sellers to get their home in tip-top shape and price where recent sales can justify the purchase. Last year we advised getting your home on the market before the Spring rush and we are advising the same this year with perhaps a bit less urgency.
We are advising buyers that this is as a good a time to buy as we’ve seen in quite some time. Mortgage rates have backed down and competition among buyers is less fierce than it was a year ago.
While we can’t predict what the coming days, weeks and months will bring or where prices go from here. We have seen nothing that indicates we’re looking at a market crash. The balanced market we’re seeing is a healthy market for buyers and sellers.
Questions? Want to talk further? Let us know!
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The NEW El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market is Here
The real estate market we experienced last Spring where every home listed had buyers waiting is over. The difference between the market last March and today is glaring.
We have entered a new real estate market in El Dorado Hills
Last March the market could not be any hotter. Sales were up 43% compared to the previous March and pending sales were up 25%. Sellers were getting multiple offers and many were getting offers above asking price. A great time to be a seller. Perhaps not as good a time to be a buyer.
November numbers show a completely different market. Now we see year over year sales and pending sales dropping in El Dorado Hills.
Where the lower priced home segment was driving the market last Spring, it is now the slower part of the market.
Home sales between $700,000 and $1 million while starting to slip are showing strength in comparison to lower priced homes.
In the $1 million+ luxury segment, which was lagging a year ago, we now see the greatest strength. Though the unit numbers are small, sales and pending sales were both strong in November.
If you are considering buying or selling real estate in 2019, we’re sure these El Dorado Hills real estate trends will raise questions. We’d happy to talk to you about your specific needs and how you can use the changing market to your advantage! Call or text us any time! 916.941.6566
Can the national media really tell you what’s going with El Dorado Hills real estate?
Does the Sacramento Bee really dig into El Dorado Hills real estate trends and data?
Since, as the saying goes, all real estate is local, we keep you updated on the El Dorado Hills real estate trends.
Below is our most recent update from November, 2018.
Curious about trends in your neighborhood?
Want an idea of your home’s current market value?
While tools like Zillow are great for aggregating data, they really aren’t very good at getting to granular data on a street-by-street or home-by-home level. That’s where we come in!
Our local market knowledge allows us to share with you sales trends for your neighborhood and even your block. We also can evaluate the condition and amenities of your home in comparison with homes that have recently sold. With this data, we can provide you with a much more specific market valuation that you can get from one of the data aggregation sites.
Curious? Let’s chat!
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